When President Vladimir Putin opens the Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg on Thursday, the attendance cast list will be closely scrutinised - in Paris, Washington, London, and at the United Nations headquarters in New York.

But Africans will view the event quite differently.

For Western foreign ministries fretting about the Kremlin's declared ambition to expand its political, military and economic footprint south of the Sahara, the gathering is an indicator of how far Russia's influence could now extend and where it will meet a friendly welcome.

Unlike the previous Russia-Africa summit in 2019, attended by 43 African leaders, this time only 17 are expected in St Petersburg.

But which of them will take prominent speaking roles in the summit? What deals will be struck with Mr Putin?

European and US policymakers until recently saw China as their main competitor in Africa - but now find themselves observing with deep unease Russia's assertive return, epitomised by the presence of Wagner mercenaries in Mali, the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya and, briefly, northern Mozambique.

And of course, the invasion of Ukraine has dramatically heightened Western mistrust of Russia's ambitions around the world.

Yet little suggests that African leaders share this perspective. Most countries on the continent, even those that have regularly voted at the UN to condemn the attack on Ukraine and its impact, do not want to get drawn into taking sides in a new "Cold War" or become pawns in a tussle for global influence and powerplays.

In any case, Russia is just one of several major actors now stepping up efforts to court political and economic influence in Africa - alongside not only China, but also India, Turkey, the Gulf states, South Korea and, of course, Western nations and Japan.

Having sometimes struggled in the past to mobilise international assistance in tackling their development and security challenges, African governments are not spurning these overtures.

And Russia knows this. In the run-up to the summit, its officials promised a new programme of support for the continent.

The summit agenda includes an "economic and humanitarian forum" and African business figures have been invited; the Kremlin promises a raft of agreements on trade, investment, scientific and technical cooperation. In pursuing this agenda, Russia may be able to build on the academic and research ties developed during the Cold War era, when many Africans studied at Soviet universities.

Whatever the presidential turnout, few governments will actually snub the summit.

But that does not mean most participants will approach St Petersburg with an uncritical mindset - even if diplomatic politeness prevents them from speaking frankly.

Last month's African leaders' peace mission to Russia and Ukraine was blunt in telling Mr Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky that the war should be ended, for the sake of the rest of the world.

And Moscow will hardly have bolstered goodwill by its decision to abandon the agreement for the safe export of both Ukrainian and Russian grain through Black Sea ports, even if Mr Putin has pledged to make up that shortfall.

That promises to drive up food prices in numerous African countries, potentially fuelling urban protest and political pressure on the leaders.